I was in Kuwait when Iraqi forces rolled in on August 2nd, 1990. The tanks drove in straight through the wide highways. Some thought these were Kuwaiti military drills. They opined it will be better if dummy houses were used to practice rather than shooting at real houses. People outside knew more about Saddam's intentions than the people inside Kuwait or Iraq. American ambassador to Iraq was questioned earlier about a potential attack before this happened. Forces were amassed at the border even before the meeting. But the headline in Kuwait times on that day said something to the effect that the meeting between Iraq and Kuwait had ended amicably with an agreement for further talk. No alarms were raised before the days leading up to the eventful day. In fact, the discussion was such a failure that Saddam decided to attack as soon the delegation returned to Baghdad. All of the royal family members and most of the rich Kuwaitis including the owner of Kuwait times had fled the country before Iraqis crossed the border. Expats do all the jobs for them anyway. Who can blame them if they expected the expats to defend their country too.
The account of their meeting is still sparse. But the reasons were well documented. Iraq got into serious financial trouble after the eight year war with Iran. Kuwait as well as Saudis had helped Iraq immensely financially. Saddam always claimed that the war was to protect Arab nations such as Kuwait and Saudi Arabia from Persian forces, Iranian forces that is. The sheiks in Kuwait never displayed their disdain for the socialist ideas of Saddam. One of Saddam's demands was for Kuwait to pardon it's loan. It was around 15 billion dollars. Remember the amount, fifteen billion dollars. There were another two demands as well. There is a large oil field named Rumaila, one of the largest in the world. It spans across Iraq and Kuwait. Iraq drills from one end and Kuwait from the other. During the war Iraq was not able to operate its oil wells. But Kuwait was drilling even more to compensate for the supply disruption during the war. Moreover, Kuwait also benefited from the increased oil price those days. When the war ended, oil prices came down. So Kuwait increased its oil production. This pressured oil prices downward further. Every OPEC member had a quota. Kuwait was blamed for was pumpking more than it's quota. Saddam wanted a production cut in expectation of increasing the oil prices. He also wanted Kuwait to stop drilling from the Rumaila oil field. Arrogance is a proud trait of Kuwait culture and personal insult is an important part of Kuwaiti arabic. These were in full display during the tri-party discussions among Iraq, Kuwait and the host Saudi Arabia on August 1st.. They too played a role in Saddam’s decision.
The war that started all other wars
In late 70's Iran and Iraq were two of the fastest growing economies. The growth was mainly driven by oil export. Both these countries are also blessed by nature with fertile soil, rivers and rain, unlike the barren deserts of Saudi Arabia and oil rich middle east nations. Iraq under brutal Saddam and Iran under corrupt Shah had made very good progress on infrastructure, education and other social services. Islamist in Iran viewed modernisation as a threat to it's culture. They interpreted westernisation as exploitation of Islamic land by the western countries. In 1979 Shah was toppled in a coup under the leadership of Ayatollah khomeini.
Iraq was under what is called an Arab socialist rule. Though Saddam was a Sunny, the country is majority Shia. It is the Shias in Iran who toppled shah. Naturally, Saddam started to worry. Iran also had a history of electing a socialist leader to power. It was this faction Saddam was counting on when he decided to intrude into Iran. He did not want to waste time since he knew the things you want to do tomorrow, do it today. The pretext was the ownership of Shatt Al Arab which divides Iran and Iraq. Shatt Al Arab is a river which divides Iraq and Iran. It provides a perfect natural border. Linguists and historians are still studying about the demand to divide a border. What Saddam expected was a quick victory, removal of islamist from power and replacing it with a socialist government. In a country which is in disarray after a revolution, that shouldn’t be hard. But that went on for 8 long years. It bankrupted both the countries. Both countries were also successful in destroying each other's oil wells. The West was successful in their games too. They made sure that Iran would lose and Iraq wouldn’t win. So they supplied arms to both the sides. They always believed in balance! Indians in general supported Saddam because of his bollywood hero like looks and Amin Sahni like sound.
Kuwait Invasion
When Iraq invaded Kuwait it did not have any meaningful defence. Iraqis just rolled in through the highways. America was fearful of the supply disruption of oil and also a potential invasion of Saudi Arabia. It was really remarkable how President George Bush formed and led a coalition to evict Iraqi forces from Kuwait. It was the grand display of modern warfare. Americans and british also got rid of their old and unused bombs. While retreating Iraq forces set fire to most of the Kuwaiti oil wells. The light from these burning wells saved them from dangerous reptiles and desert snakes. But they were carbonated by the intense heat of the allied bombs before reaching home. Most people feared the fire would burn the whole region down and reduce it to ashes. There came Red Adair. How they capped each and every burning well is the biggest astonishment for me. I was back in Kuwait in 1992 when they capped the last well.
Aftermath
The Kuwait invasion was the result of the Iran-Iraq war, Gulf war was the result of the Kuwaiti invasion. Gulf war allowed western forces to occupy the holy land of Saudi Arabia. This was said to be the reason for Osama bin laden’s ire with the West. This led to Afghanistan and 911 which led to the Iraqi invasion. Iraqi invasion resulted in the rise of ISIS which had given rise to Syrian crisis. I can't even imagine what is in store for the future. Rememeber the 15 billion dollars? The country of Iraq is in ruin, insurance cost of 911 alone is ten times that amount. The cost of Iraq war was more than a trillion dollars, Afghan war another couple of trillion and many more trillions to follow in Syria and elsewhere.
Parallels
I see parallels. India and China are the fastest growing economies in the world. There is a lot of chest thumping on both sides. China relies on its newly acquired economic and military might. India counts on its newly found friendship with America and the West. And they have started skirmishes on barren waste land glaciers, much like Iran and Iraq. Any escalation will have serious consequences for both countries and will be more devastating than the middle eastern wars. Both countries have to feed a billion mouths each. Western powers will only be happy to sell their arms to both countries as they did during the Iran Iraq war. But how can you expect the Indians and chinese to learn from the history of the Middle east?
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